Vikings Sale

Here are my thoughts on a potential Vikings sale and the people involved. Red McCombs is intrested in selling as evidenced by a meeting with Timberwolves owner Glen Taylor, last weekend in San Antonio. Reports surfaced Monday that Red has entered into an exclusive negotiating period with Reggie Fowler, in length between 30-60 days. Fowler has support finanicial backing from local car dealer Denny Hecker, with finacial backing from Alan Landis, a former investor with the New Jersey Nets, and the Zygii Wilf of New Jersey. Landis and the Zygii Wilf have the financial backing to get a deal done from extensive Real-Estate deals. Charley Walters reported this pair has the largest amount of Minority Stock in the New York Yankees. Some have specualted as to if Fowler has the wealth to contibute 30 percent of the purchase price as NFL rules require. With an esitmated purchase price between 600-650 Million this is between 180 and 195 Million that he would be required to put up. Where as all people seem to know about Fowler's wealth is that his company Spiral,INC made 314 Million dollars last year, of which he took home a good share. It should also be noted that Fowler is good friends with Vikings sideline reporter Greg Coleman, and would like to bring in Arizona Cardinals Radio Color man John Mistler a former Giants WR to play an active role with the Franchise. Chris Mortensen and Sid Hartman among others have doubted Fowler's wealth, but how would they know. It is very possible for someone with that amount of money to invest in Stocks and Real Estate and add up finances quickly. I don't know anything about Reggie Fowler other than this. If he has a desire to own the Vikings and is committed to seeing them win a World Championship in Arizona, I support him.

Glen Taylor made the unforunate decision of bidding about 225 Million if I remember correctly in 1998, 20 million less than Red at the time. This for a Franchise that is now valued between 600-700 million dollars, and with a new stadium would reach 10 digits in value by the time it is built, easily. Taylor is simply put the best pro-sports owner in Minnesota. He has invested big-time money in the Timberwolves, since buying them in 1993. He has politicial connections as a former State Senator, and this is who the fans want to buy the team. He doesn't see the value though in the team McCombs does. This differential is due to Taylor seeing how the Vikings can be worth so much in a low-revenue stadium. Word is though NFL officals have indicated to Taylor to pay McCombs price as the team is only going to go up in value, once the TV contract is up in 2006. When the NFL is most dominant programming in the country, due to its 40 market-ratings, and 70 shares. Taylor would also get a stadium done, thereby making this a no lose deal.

Those who could fly in under the radar include:

Gateway CEO Ted Waitt-The South Dakota native has been known to rumored to express intrest in the Vikings from time to time.

Best Buy Founder- Dick Schulze- Is a long time Vikings fan with rumored intrest in the team.

Red McCombsThoughts

A few comments about Red McCombs. It is true that Red hasn't spent up to the cap in recent years but a few things I would like to point out.

A. How many players are in the NFL that have left the Vikings that they could have resigned at the time? This being when they would have had cap-room after the 2002 and 2003 season. Todd Steuisse left before, they had this cap room. Robert Griffith is currently greatly on the downside of his career. Fred Robbins, maybe the Vikings thought that Chris Hovan would bounce back and with Hovan and Williams they didn't see the need to pay Robbins the type of money he got in a back-up role. Nor do I think their defense would have been much better with Robbins this year. So they have not lost any players that would really help from previous teams.

B. Most of thier best players they are in no danger of losing soon. Here is a partial list of Vikings they have for at least 2 more years under contract Daunte Culpepper, Onterrio Smith, Mewelde Moore, Randy Moss, Nate Burelson, Jim Kleinsasser, Marcus Robinson, Bryant Mckinnie, Chris Liwenski, Matt Birk, Mike Rosenthal, Adam Goldberg, Kenechi Udeze, Darrion Scott, Kevin Williams, Antonie Winfield, E.J. Henderson, Dontarrious Thomas, and Spencer Johnson. This is pretty much thier nuclues which consists of their 2 head and shoulders best defense players. I would say their 6 best offensive players are in this group.

C. Can you name a player not in this group that is irreplacable.

D. Big contracts can often lead to a lot of dead money, when players start to detiorate, as has caused problems with the Vikings after 2000. The 49ers this year, The Ravens in 2002, The Titans in the upcoming year, and the Jaguars after 1999. So making wise investments like the Vikings have done in resigning thier own players to cap-friendly deals (Culpepper, Moss, Birk, Liwesnki, Kleinsasser, and Rosenthal.) While also bringing in other pieces (Winfield, Claiborne is a smart way to play the cap.

E. Could Red invest more in a player here and there, yes. But if people think throwing around a lot of big money contracts is good business. Look at examples of some of the franchises I started. Also, Rob Brezenki is the star of the Vikings front office with the way he manages the cap.

F. Some might criticize Red on retaining Mike Tice after two huge collaspes. When he did retain him in late Decemeber, it was the week before a game against the Redskins to get in to the playoffs. Tice probably saved his job with their win against the Packers, which gave them one more shot at it next year. As far as letting Scott Linehan go, you are letting go a guy who was a successful offensive coordinator at Louisville in 2001, ( Louisville hasn't missed a beat after his departure) who had three years of success with the Vikings for Steve Loney, a guy who was a good offensive coordinator at Iowa State in 2001, and has helped develop lineman for the Vikings for the last three years. I'm really not too worried about it.

G. I will criticize Red for letting this QB and WR coaching search to be unsettled somewhat, and also goofy behavior during the season (i.e. after Giants loss in 2003, Joe Buck fiasco 2005) .
I will also criticize Red for not conducting a more-extensive search after Denny Green left in 2001. I also question bringing back Mike Tice after execution problems the second half of this season. At the same time, Red has made clear next year is make or break for Mike Tice.

That's my persepctive on Red McCombs, next I will give mine on a perspective sale.

Should the Vikings trade Randy Moss?

Well I guess it depends. Can they get anywhere near equal value? Probably not would be the answer.

Let's look at some scenarios proposed so far

Here are Peter King's of CNNSI.com

Raiders-Phillip Buchanon- An above average corner, and a player they need. Plus the 7th overall pick which looking at the Defensive players of value around that time according to Mel Kiper, JR. Pac-Mac Jones, wouldn't need another corner, Dan Cody they seem to have a couple young ends in Udeze and Scott, Derrick Johnson he has a tendency to overrun plays, although they could use a Linebacker, Shawne Merriman- A possibility at this point. This trade though probably doesn't improve their defense to anything better than the middle of the pack. Due to the need to develop linebackers on Defense. They still would lack a true-run stopper in the Middle of the Line, of which they are not many in free agency. I'll ask this question would the Defense win a lot of games, if this trade was made.

Ravens-Adalius Thomas- An above average linebacker, and the 21st pick. Adalius Thomas and 2 firsts in this draft. Doesn't improve the Defense that much.

Redskins-Fred Smoot- Plus the 9th pick-this is basically the same post as Buchanon above so I will not repeat it.

Jets-John Abraham-He would bring an instant pass-rush threat, they could then move Udeze to Left End where he played in College. This is the most attractive offer so far.

Chicago-Hunter Hillenmeyer- a smart , sligtly above average linebacker plus the 4th overall pick.

I have a hard time seeing how any of Peter King's scenarios would improve the team that much.

Pro Football Weeekly's Eric Edholm

Jets-Abraham and a a second

Redskins-Lavar Arrington and a third round pick- this is intresting in that you are mentioning a potential all-pro here, granted one the Redskins didn't miss too much. A sign and trade with Fred Smoot also involved would make this very intresting.

Cardinals-Some combination of Bryant Johnson-Probably a third wideout, and either Darnell Dockett, Bert Berry, or Adrian Wilson. I would say Wilson who is the Cardinals best defensive player and a star Safety would be most attractive, followed by Darnell Dockett who the Vikings passed on to take Donatarrious Thomas, Berry I view as a somewhat younger version of Lance Johnstone, which isn't meant as a insult.

Ravens-Edgerton Hartwell, and Gary Baxter too defensive starters who were quite good with the Ravens. Hartwell could develop into a Pro-Bowl player, and Baxter is the type of polished physical corner that would look good in a Vikings uniform. My only doubt is if there success with the Ravens could translate to a more medicore defense.

Giants-Osi Umenyiora and a draft pick, a player although quite talented might not be enough to get people excited about trading Randy Moss. Although this guy has pro-bowl potential, as soon as next year.

When Moss was healthy this year for 4 1/2 games. So he was a threat in five games.

Let's look at stats from those games.

Daunte Culpepper had a QB rating of over 125- 4 times, and in loss to the Eagles a QB rating of 95, which is better than the 63 he had without Randy Moss at full strength against them. He threw for 18 touchdowns in this span. So over a season at this pace he outdoes Peyton Manning's QB rating record, and throws for 57 touchdowns. After these games he only had a QB rating of over 125 in 3 of the last 14 games. And he was less than 100 seven times. Culpepper had three games with 5 touchdowns with Moss early this season, once Moss got injured, and wasn't full strength he only had two games with 4 touchdowns. They also had three close loses in which the Offense failed to score a second-half touchdown.

Moss-in 5 fully healthy games had 9 touchdowns, I'm not making this number up. He had 392 yards in these games.

Marcus Robinson-5 touchdowns in these games, three the rest of the season.

The Vikings offense averaged 477 yards per game. They had a 4-1 record. Culpepper averaged 333 yards passing per game. Basically the Viking offense was pretty-much under stopable except for mistakes against Philadelphia.

Before Moss

1996-Vikings- 23rd in the League in points scored-12th total offense
1997-Vikings-11th in the League in points scored-8th total offense

After Moss
1998-Vikings- 1st in points scored(An all-time record to be exact)-2nd in total offense
1999-Vikings-5th in points scored-3rd in total offense
2000-Vikings-5th in points scored-5th in total offense
2001-Vikings-24th in points scored-12th in total offense (Side Note-Spurgeon Wynn played most of three games in which they had 16 points.
2002-Vikings-9th in points scored-1st in total offense
2003-Vikings-6th in points scored-1st in total offense
2004- Vikings-6th in points scored-3rd in total offense(Note they would have shattered the team record for total yards, if they continued their pace before Moss' injury.

A few myths being floated around about this trade.

Nate Burleson is ready to be a number one receiver? In the five games without Moss in 4 of them he averaged less than 40 yards a game taking on the opponents second-best corners at time. He had a big game though against Packer corners Ahmad Carroll and Joey Thomas in week 10. But we know of their effectiveness. Although Burleson is developing into a very good receiver, he did not prove enough consistently to say that without the coverage Moss draws he will be a 1300 yard receiver.

Daunte can carry this team without Moss? As I stated ahead with Moss at Full Strength He averaged over 3.5 touchdowns a game, without Moss in the line-up less than 2, and when Moss came back hobbled slightly over 2.

The Defense will be able to win games if Randy Moss is traded? Well I was duped into thinking this after the signing of Antonie Winfield though he is a Pro-Bowl caliber corner, and the players they drafted. Will adding one defender and draft picks improve the Defense to anything more than an average middle of the pack defense, to go with a slightly above average offense, Minnesota you are looking at another 9-7 football team.

So do I think the Vikings should trade Randy Moss.

Answer A. No for what the rumors have coming in return
Answer B. Maybe, if a good enough offer comes our way.

But remember this

1999-Marshall Faulk traded to the Rams for a second
2004-Corey Dillion traded to the Pats for a second
2004- Terrell Owens traded to the Ravens for a second.

These are three skill positions players traded in the prime for way less value than they were worth. Did the 49ers think with a late second they were going to make up for Terrell Owens' loss.? Well, we saw how that worked out. The other two had options in place in Edge James, and Rudi Johnson. But this just goes to show how little big-time skill players can go for.